Case Study
Nick Papanastassiou
Director of Market Development
"ERS sets a high bar for speed, reliability, and performance. With Leap, we’ve built a more automated and market-integrated virtual power plant — leveraging real-time dispatch, analytics, and market access to ensure we meet every obligation while expanding the value stack of our distributed energy resources across Texas."
Background
EnergyHub manages the largest residential thermostat aggregation participating in ERCOT's Emergency Response Service (ERS), representing approximately 109 MW of flexible capacity across Texas in 2026. ERS operates at a different level of rigor than most utility demand response programs (DR) across the country: it’s a market-based, pay-for-performance service with precise MW commitments made in advance of each season and significant financial consequences for underperformance.
ERS requires aggregators to make four firm seasonal commitments per year and deliver against them reliably, consistently, and at scale. For EnergyHub, meeting ERS’s demands is central to its value proposition: utilities and OEMs partner with EnergyHub because its software and data-driven services have a proven track record of delivering reliable capacity when the grid needs it most.
The updated strategy delivered measurable outcomes while EnergyHub continued to meet all of its seasonal commitments:
Revenue Increase
+70%
Improved Value Capture
+53%
$/ kW-season
Higher Nominated Capacity
+17%
The Challenges
Staying Ahead of a Shifting Market
As ERCOT's grid evolves, the windows of highest system risk have shifted, with consequences for demand response participation strategies.
Texas has seen explosive growth in both utility-scale solar generation and grid-scale battery storage, and together they've fundamentally reshaped when the grid is under stress. Solar floods the grid with cheap, abundant electricity during daytime hours, suppressing midday prices — and batteries have learned to charge into that surplus, further flattening the daytime risk curve. But as solar drops off in the evening, those same batteries discharge, creating a more complex and less predictable pattern of system stress than the grid has seen before.
Add in weekends, when industrial load falls away but residential consumption stays elevated, and you have a market where the moments of greatest grid strain are both later in the day and harder to anticipate season over season.
The ERS program's risk-weighting methodology assigns higher value to the time periods where the grid is most vulnerable. Previously, demand response aggregators concentrated in traditional midday participation. This would have left meaningful revenue on the table.
EnergyHub and Leap recognized an opportunity to close the gap by building a more rigorous analytical foundation, designed around the specific dynamics of large-scale residential thermostat aggregations.
They looked to answer three questions with precision:
Which time periods offer the most revenue opportunity given current market dynamics?
Where does the portfolio actually have the load availability and flexibility to participate?
What nomination levels maximize revenue capture while maintaining the performance reliability that ERS demands?
The Solutions
In 2025, Leap worked with EnergyHub to build a more comprehensive, evidence-based participation framework across three analytical layers:
1. Risk-Weighted Market Intelligence
Leap analyzed ERCOT's risk-weighting methodology across time periods to build a precise demand curve for where true market value sits. Rather than relying on simple historical pricing averages, this analysis mapped how ERCOT assigns value to different participation windows based on when the grid is most likely to be under stress — factoring in the structural changes driven by solar buildout. The result was a clear picture of where the revenue opportunity had moved, and where it hadn't.
2. Load Availability & Flexibility Analysis
Leap and Energyhub assessed EnergyHub's portfolio performance data by time period and event window, forecasting curtailment across different times of day and week to map where load was genuinely available.
Because availability varied meaningfully by when an event was called, nominations needed to be modulated to reflect that reality.
3. Data-Driven Nomination Strategy
Leap combined EnergyHub's historical performance data, probabilistic risk modeling, and cross-partner benchmarking to develop nominations that maximize revenue capture while maintaining the reliability that ERS requires.
Strategy Shift
Armed with this analytical foundation, EnergyHub made three strategic moves:
Expanded time period participation into higher-value evening and weekend windows
Increased nominations to better reflect demonstrated portfolio performance and cross-partner benchmarking
Aligned the participation strategy with evolving ERCOT market dynamics. and built a process to iterate on it each season
Impact
For utilities
EnergyHub brings the sophistication and track record that ERCOT's most demanding grid services program requires, and the numbers to back it up. Managing approximately 109 MW of residential flexibility, EnergyHub has shown that smart thermostat aggregations can meet firm MW commitments with the same reliability as traditional grid assets.
For OEM partners
EnergyHub and Leap have the analytical playbook to onboard new device types into complex market structures quickly and confidently. The data infrastructure, nomination methodology, and performance track record are already in place, and new partners can tap into that foundation from day one.
Broader market context
This case reflects a larger structural shift in ERCOT. Rapid solar buildout is moving peak system risk later in the day and into weekends, making evening and weekend windows increasingly valuable for ERS participants, and making static DR participation strategies increasingly costly. Aggregators that can adapt season over season, with data, will capture a disproportionate share of that value.
As Texas's grid faces growing demand and more complex supply dynamics, flexible distributed resources like smart thermostats are becoming a critical tool for keeping power reliable and affordable for customers. Every megawatt of residential flexibility that performs reliably under ERCOT's most demanding conditions is a megawatt that doesn't have to come from a more expensive, more carbon-intensive source.
What's Next
EnergyHub and Leap will continue to iterate on this strategy each summer, refining nominations and participation based on evolving market conditions and portfolio performance. As ERCOT's grid continues to shift, the analytical partnership that underpins EnergyHub's commitments will remain a key competitive advantage.
About
EnergyHub
EnergyHub is a leading provider of clean energy software and services that unlock the full potential of distributed energy resources (DERs) for utilities, markets, and customers. With the EnergyHub Edge DERMS platform, utilities can enroll and manage DERs like thermostats, EVs, and batteries to create virtual power plants (VPPs) that deliver grid flexibility and reliability. EnergyHub helps 160+ utilities manage over 2.5M DERs and more than 3.4 GW of dispatchable flexible capacity with customer-centric programs and cross-DER optimization. To learn more, visit www.energyhub.com